I'd better get this one out before the World Cup gets too far through. All the polling was completed just before the World Cup though - it's from a UMR SAYit survey of New Zealanders aged 18 years or older. These questions were asked only of New Zealanders who said that they were 'very' or 'fairly' interested in the FIFA World Cup (n=430).
Firstly, we asked people who were interested in the World Cup which country they thought was going to win:
- Brazil (42%)
- Germany (13%)
- Spain (9%)
- Argentina (6%)
- England (6%)
- Netherlands (4%)
- Italy (3%)
- Portugal, France and Australia - all 1%.
- Unsure - 10%.
Asking football fans which team they'll be supporting provides quite a different picture:
- England (36%)
- Brazil (23%)
- Australia (17%)
- Netherlands (15%)
- Germany (14%)
- Argentina (12%)
- Spain (11%)
- Italy (7%)
- France (6%)
- Japan (5%)
- Portugal (5%)
- 14% didn't have a team that they would support.
I reckon that's an interesting mix. It's likely that England, Australia and the Netherlands are high up the list because relatively large numbers of people have personal connections with those countries - so much too for the old chestnut that New Zealanders support New Zealand and anyone playing Australia!
I don't imagine a huge part of the population have personal connections with Brazil or Argentina - although there are plenty of Brazilians and Argentinians living here, they certainly don't make up around 14% of everyone living in New Zealand (35% of the 39% who are interested in the World Cup). The same probably goes for Germany, Spain and the other teams on this list - many of their supporters choose them because they like the way those teams play, rather than because they have any personal connection with those countries.
By the way - here's support for England by age:
- 43% of over 60s support England, as do 43% of 45-59 year olds.
- It drops to 32% amongst 30-44 year olds and just 27% amongst under 30 year olds. 30% of under 30s go with Brazil, while 23% support Germany.