It was twenty years ago today

UMR has been tracking New Zealanders' opinions through our surveys since 1991, so for this blog I thought it might be interesting to look at how things have changed in that time. The data shows that while some things are very different, others have hardly changed.

I've chosen to look at some questions we asked in November 1992 and again in 2012. All questions are from the UMR telephone omnibus, which is nationwide survey of a representative sample of n=750 New Zealanders aged 18 years and over.

I realise that 1992 is a long time ago and that even many of us who are old enough may have forgotten some of the important things. Here's a potted profile of where NZ was at back then:

Jim Bolger's fourth National government was two years into its first term. Following the so-called 'Mother of All Budgets' and controversial legislation such as the Employment Contracts Act, they had already had two MPs defect and had effectively banished a third (a certain obscure politician called Winston Peters). After being elected in 1990 with one of the highest majorities in New Zealand history, they would go on to very nearly lose the 1993 election.
Labour was still rebuilding after the infighting of the 1984-1990 government, while the Alliance, led by Labour defector Jim Anderton, was surging in the polls.
The November 1992 poll shows Labour on 34%, National on 29% and the Alliance on 27%. Analysis showed that, at that point in time and at those polling levels, the Alliance was taking votes off National as much as it was taking votes off Labour.
The electoral system was still First Past the Post, with the first of two referenda which would lead to the introduction of MMP being held that year.
The economy was still in recession, although October-December 1992 would prove to be the first quarter for a year and a half where the economy had actually grown in the year before.
Unemployment was at 10.6%, one of the highest figures recorded in the last 40 years (Reserve Bank data back to 1970 is available here - it shows that unemployment peaked at 11.2% in 1991).
The standard floating mortgage rate was 8.9% while inflation was 2.2%.

I'll leave you to make your own conclusions about the political settings, but here are the current statistics for the other categories:

Growth for the year to June 2012 is 2.0%, although the average quarterly drop in GDP during the 2008-2010 recession was bigger than the fall during the 1991 recession
Unemployment is currently 7.3% (Q3 2012), well below the average for the 1990s but the highest since Q2 1999.
The Reserve Bank puts the standard floating mortgage rate at 5.8% (although it's obviously possible to get better deals), while inflation is 0.8%

So to the polling data:

The proportion of New Zealanders who believe that the country was heading in the right direction was 41% in November 1992 and 48% in November 2012.
Expect the economy to improve in the year ahead: November 1992 - 57%; November 2012 - 40%.
Expect their own standard of living to improve in the year ahead: November 1992 - 34%; November 2012 - 34%.

Essentially we're a bit more positive about the country as a whole, but we're relatively pessimistic about the economy.

It's interesting too to note some of the other questions we asked in 1992 - the fact that I can remember most of these names and stories makes me feel old!

We asked people what they thought of Fletcher Challenge, Electricorp and Fay Richwhite.
We asked New Zealanders whether they thought what Reserve Bank Governor Don Brash said on the economy was credible (29% yes, 39% no, 32% unsure).
Others tested on this question were Hugh Fletcher, Michael Fay, Doug Myers and Bruce Hancox (we didn't just ask about Dr Brash).
72% said that there was too much advertising on New Zealand television.

For a bit of amusement, we've added this question on the Facebook page:

Given the choice, and assuming that your family and friends could remain the same and you were the same age as now, would you rather live in New Zealand in 1992 or 2012?

You can vote at http://www.facebook.com/sayitnz

Alternatively, please comment below about whether you would prefer 1992 or 2012, and why.